A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts
Zechar, J. Douglas ; Zhuang, Jiancang
In: Geophysical Journal International, 2014, vol. 199, no. 1, p. 60-68
Ajouter à la liste personnelle- Summary
- Using analogies to gaming, we consider the problem of comparing multiple probabilistic seismicity forecasts. To measure relative model performance, we suggest a parimutuel gambling perspective which addresses shortcomings of other methods such as likelihood ratio, information gain and Molchan diagrams. We describe two variants of the parimutuel approach for a set of forecasts: head-to-head, in which forecasts are compared in pairs, and round table, in which all forecasts are compared simultaneously. For illustration, we compare the 5-yr forecasts of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment for M4.95+ seismicity in California