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A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts

Zechar, J. Douglas ; Zhuang, Jiancang

In: Geophysical Journal International, 2014, vol. 199, no. 1, p. 60-68

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    Title
    • A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts
    Author
    • Zechar, J. Douglas. Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Sonneggstrasse 5, NO H 3, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. E-mail: jeremy.zechar@sed.ethz.ch
    • Zhuang, Jiancang. Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 10-3 Midori-Cho, Tachikawa-Shi, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan
    Document Type
    • Postprint
    Language
    • English
    Published in
    • Geophysical Journal International, 2014, vol. 199, no. 1, p. 60-68. Oxford University Press
    Other Version
    OAI-PMH Identifier
    • oai:doc.rero.ch:296885
    Summary
    Using analogies to gaming, we consider the problem of comparing multiple probabilistic seismicity forecasts. To measure relative model performance, we suggest a parimutuel gambling perspective which addresses shortcomings of other methods such as likelihood ratio, information gain and Molchan diagrams. We describe two variants of the parimutuel approach for a set of forecasts: head-to-head, in which forecasts are compared in pairs, and round table, in which all forecasts are compared simultaneously. For illustration, we compare the 5-yr forecasts of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment for M4.95+ seismicity in California