Fulltext

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 - a worst case

Wetter, Oliver ; Pfister, Christian ; Werner, Johannes ; Zorita, Eduardo ; Wagner, Sebastian ; Seneviratne, Sonia ; Herget, Jürgen ; Grünewald, Uwe ; Luterbacher, Jürg ; Alcoforado, Maria-Joao ; Barriendos, Mariano ; Bieber, Ursula ; Brázdil, Rudolf ; Burmeister, Karl ; Camenisch, Chantal ; Contino, Antonio ; Dobrovolný, Petr ; Glaser, Rüdiger ; Himmelsbach, Iso ; Kiss, Andrea ; Kotyza, Oldřich ; Labbé, Thomas ; Limanówka, Danuta ; Litzenburger, Laurent ; Nordl, Øyvind ; Pribyl, Kathleen ; Retsö, Dag ; Riemann, Dirk ; Rohr, Christian ; Siegfried, Werner ; Söderberg, Johan ; Spring, Jean-Laurent

In: Climatic Change, 2014, vol. 125, no. 3-4, p. 349-363

Add to personal list
    Title
    • The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 - a worst case
    Author
    • Wetter, Oliver. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
    • Pfister, Christian. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
    • Werner, Johannes. Department of Geography; Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390, Giessen, Switzerland
    • Zorita, Eduardo. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany
    • Wagner, Sebastian. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany
    • Seneviratne, Sonia. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CHN N11, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
    • Herget, Jürgen. Department of Geography, Rheinische Friedrich Wilhelms University, Meckenheimer Allee 166, D-53115, Bonn, Germany
    • Grünewald, Uwe. Chair Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Process Engineering, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus - Senftenberg, Konrad-Wachsmann-Allee 6, 03046, Cottbus, Switzerland
    • Luterbacher, Jürg. Department of Geography; Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390, Giessen, Switzerland
    • Alcoforado, Maria-Joao. Centre of Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Planning, University of Lisbon, Edifício da Fac. de Letras, Alameda da Universidade, 1600-214, Lisboa, Portugal
    • Barriendos, Mariano. Catalan Institute for Climate Sciences (IC3), Doctor Trueta 203, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
    • Bieber, Ursula. Department of Slavonic Studies and Interdisciplinary Centre of Medieval Studies, University of Salzburg, Erzabt-Klotz-Strasse 1, 5020, Salzburg, Austria
    • Brázdil, Rudolf. Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic
    • Burmeister, Karl. Hoyerberg, Am Staeuben 18, Hoyerberg, 88131, Bodolz, Germany
    • Camenisch, Chantal. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
    • Contino, Antonio. Department of Earth and Sea Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 26, 90123, Palermo, Italy
    • Dobrovolný, Petr. Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic
    • Glaser, Rüdiger. Department of Environmental Social Studies and Geography - Physical Geography, Albert-Ludwigs University Freiburg i.Br., Werthmannstrasse 4, 79102, Freiburg, Germany
    • Himmelsbach, Iso. Department of Environmental Social Studies and Geography - Physical Geography, Albert-Ludwigs University Freiburg i.Br., Werthmannstrasse 4, 79102, Freiburg, Germany
    • Kiss, Andrea. Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, 1040, Vienna, Austria
    • Kotyza, Oldřich. Regional Museum, Dlouhá 139, 412 01, Litoměřice, Czech Republic
    • Labbé, Thomas. Institute of History, Technische Universität (TU) of Darmstadt, Residenzschloss, 64283, Darmstadt, Germany
    • Limanówka, Danuta. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB), Center for Poland's Climate Monitoring, Podleśna, 01-673, Warsaw, Poland
    • Litzenburger, Laurent. Lorraine University Center for Historical Research (CRULH), University of Lorraine, Campus Lettres et Sciences Humaines, Place Godefroy de Bouillon, BP 3397, 54015, Nancy Cedex, France
    • Nordl, Øyvind. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Research and Development Department, Division for Model and Climate Analysis, Henrik Mohns plass 1, P.O. Box 43, N-0313, Blindern, Norway
    • Pribyl, Kathleen. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, NR4 7TJ, Norwich, United Kingdom
    • Retsö, Dag. Department of Economic History, Stockholm University, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
    • Riemann, Dirk. Department of Environmental Social Studies and Geography - Physical Geography, Albert-Ludwigs University Freiburg i.Br., Werthmannstrasse 4, 79102, Freiburg, Germany
    • Rohr, Christian. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
    • Siegfried, Werner. Agroscope Research Station ACW, Extension Wine, Schloss 1 Postfach, 8820, Wädenswil, Switzerland
    • Söderberg, Johan. Department of Economic History, Stockholm University, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
    • Spring, Jean-Laurent. Station de recherche Agroscope à Pully, 21 av. de Rochettaz CH-1009, Pully, Switzerland
    Document Type
    • Postprint
    Classification
    • Earth sciences
    OAI-PMH Identifier
    • oai:doc.rero.ch:324730
    Summary
    The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring-summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.