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Integrated population models: a novel analysis framework for deeper insights into population dynamics

Schaub, Michael ; Abadi, Fitsum

In: Journal of Ornithology, 2011, vol. 152, p. 227-237

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    Titre
    • Integrated population models: a novel analysis framework for deeper insights into population dynamics
    Auteur
    • Schaub, Michael. Swiss Ornithological Institute, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
    • Abadi, Fitsum. Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Division of Conservation Biology, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 6, 3012, Bern, Switzerland
    Type de document
    • Postprint
    Identifiant OAI-PMH
    • oai:doc.rero.ch:309916
    Summary
    Integrated population models (IPMs) represent the single, unified analysis of population count data and demographic data. This modelling framework is quite novel and can be implemented within the classical or the Bayesian mode of statistical inference. Here, we briefly show the basic steps that need to be taken when an integrated population model is adopted, and review existing integrated population models for birds and mammals. There are important advantages of integrated compared to conventional analyses that analyse each dataset separately and then try to make an inference about population dynamics. First, integrated population models allow the estimating of more demographic quantities, because there is information about all demographic processes operating in a population, and this information is exploited. Second, parameter estimates become more precise, and this enhances statistical power. Finally, all sources of uncertainty due to process variability and the sampling process(es) are adequately included. Core of the integrated models is the link of changes in the population size and the demographic rates via a demographic model (usually a Leslie matrix model) and the likelihoods of all existing datasets. We discuss some critical assumptions that are typically made in integrated population models and highlight fruitful areas of future research. Currently, we have found 25 studies that used integrated population models. Central to most studies was statistical development rather than their application to address an ecological question, which is not surprising given that integrated population models are still a new development. We predict that integrated population models will become a common and important tool in studies of population dynamics, both in ecology and its applications, such as conservation biology or wildlife management