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Markov model to forecast the change in prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths during a control programme: a case study in Vietnam

Montresor, Antonio ; Gabrielli, Albis Francesco ; Yajima, Aya ; Lethanh, Nam ; Biggs, Beverley-Ann ; Casey, Gerald J. ; Tinh, Ta Thi ; Engels, Dirk ; Savioli, Lorenzo

In: Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2013, vol. 107, no. 5, p. 313-318

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    Titel
    • Markov model to forecast the change in prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths during a control programme: a case study in Vietnam
    Autor
    • Montresor, Antonio. Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD), World Heath Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland
    • Gabrielli, Albis Francesco. Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD), World Heath Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland
    • Yajima, Aya. Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD), World Heath Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland
    • Lethanh, Nam. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETHZ), Zurich, Switzerland
    • Biggs, Beverley-Ann. Department of Medicine (RMH/WH), University of Melbourne, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville, Australia
    • Casey, Gerald J.. Department of Medicine (RMH/WH), University of Melbourne, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville, Australia
    • Tinh, Ta Thi. National Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology (NIMPE), Hanoi, Vietnam
    • Engels, Dirk. Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD), World Heath Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland
    • Savioli, Lorenzo. Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD), World Heath Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland
    Dokumententyp
    • Postprint
    Sprache
    • Englisch
    Veröffentlicht in
    • Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2013, vol. 107, no. 5, p. 313-318. Oxford University Press
    Andere elektronische Ausgabe
    OAI-PMH-ID
    • oai:doc.rero.ch:291170
    Summary
    Background A mathematical model based on the Markov methodology to predict the change in prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections during public health control activities is not available, but would be an extremely efficient planning tool. Method We used the parasitological data collected during a deworming and iron supplementation programme for women of child-bearing age conducted in Vietnam between 2006 and 2011 to develop a Markov transition probability model. The transition probabilities were calculated from the observed changes in prevalence in the different classes of intensity for each STH species during the first year of intervention. The model was then developed and used to estimate the prevalence in year 2, 3, 4 and 5 for each STH species and for ‘any STH infection'. The prevalence predicted by the model was then compared with the prevalence observed at different times during programme implementation. Results The comparison between the model-predicted prevalence and the observed prevalence proved a good fit of the model. Conclusions We consider the Markov transition probability model to be a promising method of predicting changes in STH prevalence during control efforts. Further research to validate the model with observed data in different geographical and epidemiological settings is suggested to refine the prediction model