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Université de Fribourg

Identification of Average Treatment Effects in Social Experiments Under Alternative Forms of Attrition

Huber, Martin

In: Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 2012, vol. 37, no. 3, p. 443-474

As any empirical method used for causal analysis, social experiments are prone to attrition which may flaw the validity of the results. This paper considers the problem of partially missing outcomes in experiments. Firstly, it systematically reveals under which forms of attrition - in terms of its relation to observable and/or unobservable factors - experiments do (not) yield causal...

Université de Fribourg

Direct and Indirect Effects based on Changes-in-Changes

Huber, Martin ; Schelker, Mark ; Strittmatter, Anthony

In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2019, p. 1-60

We propose a novel approach for causal mediation analysis based on changesin- changes assumptions restricting unobserved heterogeneity over time. This allows disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome into an indirect effect operating through a binary intermediate variable (called mediator) and a direct effect running via other causal mechanisms. We identify...

Université de Fribourg

Nonparametric estimation of natural direct and indirect effects based on inverse probability weighting

Huber, Martin ; Yu-Chin, Hsu ; Tsung-Chih, Lai

In: Journal of Econometric Methods, 2019, vol. 8, no. 1, p. 1-20

Using a sequential conditional independence assumption, this paper discusses fully nonparametric estimation of natural direct and indirect causal effects in causal mediation analysis based on inverse probability weighting. We propose estimators of the average indirect effect of a binary treatment, which operates through intermediate variables (or mediators) on the causal path between the...

Université de Fribourg

Evaluating an Information Campaign about Rural Development Policies in FYR Macedonia

Huber, Martin ; Kotevska, Ana ; Martinovska Stojcheska, Aleksandra ; Solovyeva, Anna

In: Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 2019, vol. 48, no. 1, p. 117-141

This study investigates the effects of a local information campaign on farmers’ interest in a rural development programme (RDP) in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The results suggest that while our intervention succeeded in informing farmers, it had a negative, albeit only marginally significant, effect on the reported possibility of using future RDP support. This puzzling result...

Université de Fribourg

Machine learning with screens for detecting bid-rigging cartels

Huber, Martin ; Imhof, David

In: International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2019, vol. 65, p. 277-301

We combine machine learning techniques with statistical screens computed from the distribution of bids in tenders within the Swiss construction sector to predict collusion through bid-rigging cartels. We assess the out of sample performance of this approach and find it to correctly classify more than 84% of the total of bidding processes as collusive or non-collusive. We also discuss...

Université de Fribourg

Kausalanalyse mit maschinellem Lernen = Combining Causal Analysis with Machine Learning

Huber, Martin

In: HMD Praxis der Wirtschaftsinformatik, 2019, vol. 57, p. 106-116

Die datenbasierte Kausalanalyse versucht, den kausalen Effekt einer Intervention auf ein interessierendes Ergebnis zu messen, häufig unter Kontrolle beobachtbarer Charakteristiken, die ebenfalls das Ergebnis beeinflussen. Beispiele für kausale Fragestellungen sind: Was ist der Effekt einer Marketingkampagne (Intervention) auf die Verkaufszahlen (Ergebnis) unter ansonsten identischen...

Université de Fribourg

The effects of anti-corruption videos on attitudes toward corruption in a Ukrainian online survey

Denisova-Schmidt, Elena ; Huber, Martin ; Prytula, Yaroslav

In: Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2019, p. 304-332

This paper presents the outcomes of an anti-corruption educational intervention among Ukrainian students based on an online experiment. More than 3,000 survey participants were randomly assigned to one of three different videos on corruption and its consequences (treatment groups) or a video on higher education (control group). The data suggest a high level of academic dishonesty and...

Université de Fribourg

Direct and Indirect Effects Based on Difference-in-Differences With an Application to Political Preferences Following the Vietnam Draft Lottery

Deuchert, Eva ; Huber, Martin ; Schelker, Mark

In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2019, vol. 37, no. 4, p. 710-720

We propose a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect within specific subpopulations into a direct effect and an indirect effect operating through a binary mediating variable. Random treatment assignment along with specific common trend and effect homogeneity assumptions identify the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not...

Université de Fribourg

Including Covariates in the Regression Discontinuity Design

Frölich, Markus ; Huber, Martin

In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2019, vol. 37, no. 4, p. 736-748

This article proposes a fully nonparametric kernel method to account for observed covariates in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), which may increase precision of treatment effect estimation. It is shown that conditioning on covariates reduces the asymptotic variance and allows estimating the treatment effect at the rate of one- dimensional nonparametric regression, irrespective of the...