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Predictive ground motion scaling in Switzerland: Best estimates and uncertainties

Bay, Francesca ; Wiemer, Stefan ; Fäh, Donat ; Giardini, Domenico

In: Journal of Seismology, 2005, vol. 9, no. 2, p. 223-240

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    Titel
    • Predictive ground motion scaling in Switzerland: Best estimates and uncertainties
    Autor
    • Bay, Francesca. Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Hoenngerberg HPP P5, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
    • Wiemer, Stefan. Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Hoenngerberg HPP P5, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
    • Fäh, Donat. Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Hoenngerberg HPP P5, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
    • Giardini, Domenico. Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Hoenngerberg HPP P5, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
    Dokumententyp
    • Postprint
    Sprache
    • Englisch
    Veröffentlicht in
    • Journal of Seismology, 2005, vol. 9, no. 2, p. 223-240. Kluwer Academic Publishers
    Andere elektronische Ausgabe
    OAI-PMH-ID
    • oai:doc.rero.ch:321401
    Summary
    Spectral ground motion (1 to 15 Hz) as a function of distance is modeled for events spanning 3.0 5. To constrain the viable models at large magnitudes, results from worldwide scaling studies are evaluated in light of the Swiss data. The model that explains best the low observed stress drops at small magnitudes (Δσ ≅ 3 bar) yet matches observed intensities of historical earthquakes assumes a stress drop increasing with moment asM00.25. For three sites in Switzerland we evaluate the sensitivity of the epistemic uncertainty by computing probabilistic hazard curves. Our model offers the most comprehensive and detailed study of spectral ground motion for Switzerland to date