recid:326929 - Search Results

Machine learning with screens for detecting bid-rigging cartels

Huber, Martin ; Imhof, David

(Working Papers SES ; 494)

We combine machine learning techniques with statistical screens computed from the distribution of bids in tenders within the Swiss construction sector to predict collusion through bid-rigging cartels. We assess the out of sample performance of this approach and find it to correctly classify more than 80% of the total of bidding processes as collusive or non-collusive. As the correct...

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Simple Statistical Screens to Detect Bid Rigging

Imhof, David

(Working Papers SES ; 484)

The paper applies simple statistical screens to a bid-rigging cartel in Switzerland, and shows how well the screens detect it by capturing the impact of collusion on the discrete distribution of the bids. In case of bid rigging, the support for the distribution of the bids decreases involving a lower variance, illustrated by the coefficient of variance and the kurtosis statistic. Furthermore,...

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