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Prediction in complex systems: the case of the international trade network

Vidmer, Alexandre ; Zeng, An ; Medo, Matúš ; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

In: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2015, vol. 436, p. 188–199

Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction algorithms to data on the international trade between countries. This data can be represented as a complex network where links connect countries with the...