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Université de Fribourg

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Huss, Matthias ; Zemp, Michael ; Joerg, Philip C. ; Salzmann, Nadine

In: Journal of Hydrology, 2014, vol. 510, p. 35–48

Glacier response to a changing climate and its impact on runoff is understood in general terms, but model-based projections are affected by considerable uncertainties. They originate from the driving climate model, input data quality, and simplifications in the glacio-hydrological model and hamper the reliability of the simulations. Here, an integrative assessment of the uncertainty in 21st...

Université de Fribourg

Permafrost model sensitivity to seasonal climatic changes and extreme events in mountainous regions

Marmy, Antoine ; Salzmann, Nadine ; Scherler, Martin ; Hauck, Christian

In: Environmental Research Letters, 2013, vol. 8, no. 3, p. 035048

Climate models project considerable ranges and uncertainties in future climatic changes. To assess the potential impacts of climatic changes on mountain permafrost within these ranges of uncertainty, this study presents a sensitivity analysis using a permafrost process model combined with climate input based on delta-change approaches. Delta values comprise a multitude of coupled air temperature...

Université de Fribourg

Modeled sensitivity of two alpine permafrost sites to RCM-based climate scenarios

Scherler, Martin ; Hauck, Christian ; Hoelzle, Martin ; Salzmann, Nadine

In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 2013, vol. 18, no. 2, p. 780–794

Climate change as projected by contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) will have a great impact on high latitude and high mountain permafrost. A process-based one-dimensional permafrost model is used to evaluate the sensitivity of two characteristic alpine permafrost sites to changes in climate for a 110 year time period starting 1991 and ending 2100...

Université de Fribourg

Glacier changes and climate trends derived from multiple sources in the data scarce Cordillera Vilcanota region, southern Peruvian Andes

Salzmann, Nadine ; Huggel, C. ; Rohrer, M. ; Silverio, W. ; Mark, B. G. ; Burns, P. ; Portocarrero, C.

In: The Cryosphere, 2013, vol. 7, p. 103-118

The role of glaciers as temporal water reservoirs is particularly pronounced in the (outer) tropics because of the very distinct wet/dry seasons. Rapid glacier retreat caused by climatic changes is thus a major concern, and decision makers demand urgently for regional/local glacier evolution trends, ice mass estimates and runoff assessments. However, in remote mountain areas, spatial and temporal...

Université de Fribourg

The Swiss Alpine glaciers' response to the global '2 °C air temperature target'

Salzmann, Nadine ; Machguth, Horst ; Linsbauer, Andreas

In: Environmental Research Letters, 2012, vol. 7, no. 4, p. 044001

While there is general consensus that observed global mean air temperature has increased during the past few decades and will very likely continue to rise in the coming decades, the assessment of the effective impacts of increased global mean air temperature on a specific regional-scale system remains highly challenging. This study takes up the widely discussed concept of limiting global mean...

Université de Fribourg

Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability

Huggel, C. ; Salzmann, Nadine ; Allen, S. ; Caplan-Auerbach, J. ; Fischer, L. ; Haeberli, W. ; Larsen, C. ; Schneider, D. ; Wessels, R.

In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2010, vol. 368, no. 1919, p. 2435-2459

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively...