(Working Papers SES ; 514)
Causal mediation analysis aims at disentangling a treatment effect into an indirect mechanism operating through an intermediate outcome or mediator, as well as the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest. However, the evaluation of direct and indirect effects is frequently complicated by non-ignorable selection into the treatment and/or mediator, even after controlling for...
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(Working Papers SES ; 513)
We propose a new method for flagging bid rigging, which is particularly useful for detecting incomplete bid-rigging cartels. Our approach combines screens, i.e. statistics derived from the distribution of bids in a tender, with machine learning to predict the probability of collusion. As a methodological innovation, we calculate such screens for all possible subgroups of three or four bids...
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(Working Papers SES ; 503 (revised))
In India, as in many developing countries, female sterilization is the main contraceptive method: 37% of women older than 25 are sterilized. However, no economic study assesses the eect of sterilization, providing guidance on ecient reproductive health policies. We analyze the consequences of sterilization for maternal health, considering the endogeneity of the decision. We exploit that...
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(Working Papers SES ; 505 (revised))
For the population over 65, long-term care (LTC) expenditure constitutes a considerable share in total health expenditures. In this paper, we distinguish between medical care, intended to improve one›s state of health, and personal care required for daily routine. Personal care can be either carried out autonomously or by a third party. In the course of aging, autonomous personal care is...
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(Working Papers SES ; 511)
Finance practitioners frequently claim that stocks of Korean firms are undervalued and trade at a discount relative to foreign firms. This phenomenon is commonly called «the Korea discount». It is based on anecdotal evidence comparing either the price- earnings ratios of different market indexes or those of different individual stocks. This paper provides empirical evidence on the existence...
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(Working Papers SES ; 510)
Human papillomavirus (HPV) is responsible for almost all of the 530,000 new cases of cervical cancer and approximately 266,000 deaths per year. HPV vaccination is an integral component of the World Health Organization’s global strategy to fight the disease. However, high vaccine prices enforced through patent protection are limiting vaccine expansion, particularly in low- and middle-income...
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(Working Papers SES ; 509)
Vaccine development is a lengthy, expensive and risky venture, with the research and development (R&D) process costing billions of dollars. The pre-clinical stage of vaccine R&D is largely performed by academic research institutions, then continued by the pharmaceutical industry though licensing agreements, taking the most promising candidates to the clinical testing stage. Governments play a...
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(Working Papers SES ; 508)
We propose a novel approach for causal mediation analysis based on changes-in- changes assumptions restricting unobserved heterogeneity over time. This allows disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome into an indirect effect operating through a binary intermediate variable (called mediator) and a direct effect running via other causal mechanisms. We...
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(Working Papers SES ; 507)
The synthetic control method serves as an appropriate and promising approach to do quantitative comparison research. However, the method is rarely used in the context of tourism. We fill this research gap by applying the method to the case of a Swiss mountain destination. Alpine tourist destinations have suffered from a declining demand in the last decade. Fewer tourist visit ski resorts....
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(Working Papers SES ; 506)
The apprenticeship market is the earliest possible entry into the workforce in developed economies. Since early labor market shocks are likely magnified throughout professional life, avoiding mismatches between talent and occupations e.g. due to gender- or status-based discrimination appears crucial. This experimental study investigates the effects of applicant gender and its interaction with...
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