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Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

Gittelson, Simone ; Biedermann, Alex ; Bozza, Silvia ; Taroni, Franco

In: Artificial Intelligence and Law, 2013, vol. 21, no. 2, p. 221-252

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    Titre
    • Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks
    Auteur
    • Gittelson, Simone. Institut de Police Scientifique, Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, Université de Lausanne, Quartier Sorge: le Batochime, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
    • Biedermann, Alex. Institut de Police Scientifique, Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, Université de Lausanne, Quartier Sorge: le Batochime, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
    • Bozza, Silvia. Dipartimento di Economia, Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia, San Giobbe, Cannaregio 873, 30121, Venezia, Italy
    • Taroni, Franco. Institut de Police Scientifique, Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, Université de Lausanne, Quartier Sorge: le Batochime, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
    Type de document
    • Postprint
    Langue
    • Anglais
    Publié dans
    • Artificial Intelligence and Law, 2013, vol. 21, no. 2, p. 221-252. Springer Netherlands
    Autre version électronique
    Identifiant OAI-PMH
    • oai:doc.rero.ch:322516
    Summary
    The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem