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European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011

Malvezzi, M. ; Arfé, A. ; Bertuccio, P. ; Levi, F. ; La Vecchia, C. ; Negri, E.

In: Annals of Oncology, 2011, vol. 22, no. 4, p. 947-956

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    Titre
    • European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011
    Auteur
    • Malvezzi, M.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    • Arfé, A.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    • Bertuccio, P.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    • Levi, F.. Cancer Epidemiology Unit and Vaud and Neuchâtel Cancer Registries, Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
    • La Vecchia, C.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    • Negri, E.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    Type de document
    • Postprint
    Langue
    • Anglais
    Publié dans
    • Annals of Oncology, 2011, vol. 22, no. 4, p. 947-956. Oxford University Press
    Autre version électronique
    Identifiant OAI-PMH
    • oai:doc.rero.ch:304732
    Summary
    Background: Mortality figures become available after some years. Materials and methods:Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates. Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off. Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist