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European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2013

Malvezzi, M. ; Bertuccio, P. ; Levi, F. ; La Vecchia, C. ; Negri, E.

In: Annals of Oncology, 2013, vol. 24, no. 3, p. 792-800

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    Titre
    • European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2013
    Auteur
    • Malvezzi, M.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    • Bertuccio, P.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    • Levi, F.. Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Vaud and Neuchâtel Cancer Registries, Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (IUMSP), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
    • La Vecchia, C.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    • Negri, E.. Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche ‘Mario Negri', Milan
    Type de document
    • Postprint
    Langue
    • Inglese
    Publié dans
    • Annals of Oncology, 2013, vol. 24, no. 3, p. 792-800. Oxford University Press
    Autre version électronique
    Identifiant OAI-PMH
    • oai:doc.rero.ch:304584
    Summary
    Background Estimated cancer mortality statistics were published for the years 2011 and 2012 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Patients and methods Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models and the World Health Organization mortality and population database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized (world) mortality rates (ASRs) in 2013 from all cancers and selected cancers. Results The 2013 predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU is 1 314 296 (737 747 men and 576 489 women). Between 2009 and 2013, all cancer ASRs are predicted to fall by 6% to 140.1/100 000 in men, and by 4% to 85.3/100 000 in women. The ASRs per 100 000 are 6.6 men and 2.9 women for stomach, 16.7 men and 9.5 women for intestines, 8.0 men and 5.5 women for pancreas, 37.1 men and 13.9 women for lung, 10.5 men for prostate, 14.6 women for breast, and 4.7 for uterine cancer, and 4.2 and 2.6 for leukaemia. Recent trends are favourable except for pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Conclusions Favourable trends will continue in 2013. Pancreatic cancer has become the fourth cause of cancer death in both sexes, while in a few years lung cancer will likely become the first cause of cancer mortality in women as well, overtaking breast cancer