Macroeconomic and financial analysis of mega-events : evidence from Greece

Kasimati, Evangelia ; Dawson, Peter (Dir.) ; Hudson, John (Codir.)

Thèse de doctorat : IOC Library, 2006.

Empirical models can increase the understanding of the evolution of an economy, and decrease uncertainty surrounding the future, by providing a bridge between economic theory and the real world. This thesis involves two empirical analysis. The first and major one describes the construction of a small macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model of the Greek economy. Using official data from... Plus

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    Summary
    Empirical models can increase the understanding of the evolution of an economy, and decrease uncertainty surrounding the future, by providing a bridge between economic theory and the real world. This thesis involves two empirical analysis. The first and major one describes the construction of a small macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model of the Greek economy. Using official data from 1958-2005, the model, based on an income-expenditure approach, is composed of nine behavioural functions and three identities. After a general outline of the models structure, the results of the main specification and diagnostic tests for all nine econometric behavioural equations as well as their estimations are presented. A historical simulation is also undertaken to assess how closely each endogenous variable tracks its corresponding historical data series. By using the model, the major aim of this study is to evaluate the positive or negative impacts on the Greek economy of the Summer Olympic Games that took place in Athens in 2004. The potential impacts are examined across three time periods : the period before the Olympics (from 1997 until 2003), the period during the Olympics themselves (the year of 2004) and the period after the Olympics (from 2005 up to 2012). We find that between 1997-2005 the total economic activity in terms of GDP increased by GRD 6.200 bn, while unemployment decreased by 776.3 thousands people during the same period. In addition, as a result of the Olympic Games the total Greek GDP in the period from 2006 to 2012 is forecast to grow annually on average from 0.46 to 0.52 percent, while unemployment is forecast to decline by an average of 1.63 to 2.26 percent per year over the same period. Through an event study methodology, the second empirical analysis explores whether there was any stock market reaction to the announcement that Athens would host the 2004 Olympics. The stock exchanges of the two primary candidates for the Games are examined, those of Greece (the winner) and Italy (the loser). We provide evidence that there was a significantly positive effect on the Athens Stock Exchange as a whole, as well as on infrastructure-related industries, while no significant effect was identified on the Milan Stock Exchange.